Napkin math can change the world.

Mathematical models hold the key to equitable patient care.

Making visible the cost of informal caregivers' time in Latin America: a case study for major cardiovascular, cancer and respiratory diseases in eight countries.

BACKGROUND: Informal care is a key element of health care and well-being for society, yet it is scarcely visible and rarely studied in health economic evaluations. This study aims to estimate the time use and cost associated with informal care for cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and ten different cancers in eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru). METHODS: We carried out an exhaustive literature review on informal caregivers' time use, focusing on the selected diseases. We developed a survey for professional caregivers and conducted expert interviews to validate this data in the local context. We used an indirect estimate through the interpolation of the available data, for those cases in which we do not found reliable information. We used the proxy good method to estimate the monetary value of the use of time of informal care. National household surveys databases were processed to obtain the average wage per hour of a proxy of informal caregiver. Estimates were expressed in 2020 US dollars. RESULTS: The study estimated approximately 1,900 million hours of informal care annually and $ 4,300 million per year in average informal care time cost for these fifteen diseases and eight countries analyzed. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for an informal care burden that ranged from 374 to 555 h per year, while cancers varied from 512 to 1,825 h per year. The informal care time cost share on GDP varied from 0.26% (Mexico) to 1.38% (Brazil), with an average of 0.82% in the studied American countries. Informal care time cost represents between 16 and 44% of the total economic cost (direct medical and informal care cost) associated with health conditions. CONCLUSIONS: The study shows that there is a significant informal care economic burden -frequently overlooked- in different chronic and acute diseases in Latin American countries; and highlights the relevance of including the economic value of informal care in economic evaluations of healthcare.

Financial toxicity in cancer care in India: a systematic review.

Although financial toxicity is widely acknowledged to be a potential consequence of costly cancer treatment, little is known about its prevalence and outcome among the Indian population. In this study, we systematically reviewed the prevalence, determinants, and consequences of financial toxicity among patients with cancer in India. 22 studies were included in the systematic review. The determinants of financial toxicity include household income, type of health-care facility used, stage of disease, area of residence, age at the time of diagnosis, recurrent cancer, educational status, insurance coverage, and treatment modality. Financial toxicity was associated with poor quality of life, accumulation of debts, premature entry into the labour market, and non-compliance with therapy. Our findings emphasise the need for urgent strategies to mitigate financial toxicity among patients with cancer in India, especially in the most deprived sections of society. The qualitative evidence synthesised in this systematic review could provide a basis for the development of such interventions to reduce financial toxicity among patients with cancer.

Valuation of Informal Care Provided to People Living With Dementia: A Systematic Literature Review.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to identify the methods used to determine the value of informal care provided to people living with dementia and to estimate the average hourly unit cost by valuation method. METHODS: A literature search in MEDLINE Complete, CINAHL, PsycINFO, EconLit, EMBASE and NHS Economic Evaluation Database was undertaken. Following the screening of title, abstract, and full text, characteristics of eligible studies were extracted systematically and analyzed descriptively. The corresponding hourly cost estimates were converted into 2018 US dollars based on purchasing power parities for gross domestic product. RESULTS: A total number of 111 articles were included in this review from 3106 post-deduplication records. Three main valuation methodologies were identified: the replacement cost method (n = 50), the opportunity cost approach (n = 36), and the stated preference method based on willingness to pay (n = 3), with 16 studies using multiple methods and 6 studies not specifying the valuation method. The amount of informal care increased as the condition of dementia progressed, which was reflected in the cost of informal care. The average hourly unit cost used to value informal care was US $16.78 (SD = US $12.11). Although the unit cost was approximately US $15 per hour when using the opportunity cost method and US $14 when using the stated preference method, the highest unit cost was obtained when using the replacement cost method (US $18.37, SD = US $13.12). CONCLUSIONS: Although costs of informal care should be considered when undertaking an economic evaluation or estimating the overall costs of dementia from a policy and priority-setting perspective, further research into applying consistent approaches to valuation is warranted.

Patient, family and productivity costs of end-stage renal disease in the Netherlands; exposing non-healthcare related costs.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare costs related to ESRD are well-described, but broader societal costs of ESRD are less known. This study aimed to estimate patient and family costs, including informal care costs and out-of-pocket costs, and costs due to productivity loss related to ESRD, for patients receiving dialysis and living with a kidney transplant, using a bottom-up approach. METHODS: A total of 655 patients were asked to complete a digital questionnaire consisting of two standardised instruments (iMCQ and iPCQ) from November 2016 through January 2017. We applied a retrospective bottom-up cost estimation by combining data from the questionnaire with unit prices from the Dutch costing manual. RESULTS: Our study sample consisted of 230 patients, of which 165 were kidney transplant recipients and 65 received dialysis. The total annual non-healthcare related costs were estimated at €8284 (SD: €14,266) for transplant recipients and €23,488 (SD: €39,434) for dialysis patients. Costs due to productivity loss contributed most to the total non-healthcare costs (66% for transplant recipients and 65% for dialysis patients), followed by informal care costs (26% resp. 29%) and out-of-pocket costs, such as medication and travel expenses (8% resp. 6%). CONCLUSION: By exposing patient, family and productivity costs, our study revealed that dialysis and transplantation are not only costly within the healthcare system, but also incur high non-healthcare costs (18-23% resp. 35% of the total societal costs). It is important to reveal these types of non-healthcare costs in order to understand the full burden of ESRD for society and the potential impact of new therapies.

Medical Care and Long-Term Care Expenditures Attributable to Alzheimer's Disease Onset: Results from the LIFE Study.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) can increase both medical care and long-term care (LTC) costs, but the latter are frequently neglected in estimates of AD's economic burden. OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the economic burden of new AD cases in Japan by estimating patient-level medical care and LTC expenditures over 3 years using a longitudinal database. METHODS: The study was performed using monthly claims data from residents of 6 municipalities in Japan. We identified patients with new AD diagnoses between April 2015 and March 2016 with 3 years of follow-up data. Medical care and LTC expenditures were estimated from 1 year before onset until 3 years after onset. To quantify the additional AD-attributable expenditures, AD patients were matched with non-AD controls using propensity scores, and their differences in expenditures were calculated. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, the AD group and non-AD group each comprised 1748 individuals for analysis (AD group: mean age±standard deviation, 81.9±7.6 years; women, 66.0%). The total additional expenditures peaked at $1398 in the first month, followed by $1192 and $1031 in the second and third months, respectively. The additional LTC expenditures increased substantially 3 months after AD onset ($227), and gradually increased thereafter. These additional LTC expenditures eventually exceeded the additional medical care expenditures in the second year after AD onset. CONCLUSION: Although total AD-attributable expenditures peaked just after disease onset, the impact of LTC on these expenditures rose over time. Failure to include LTC expenditures would severely underestimate the economic burden of AD.

Socioeconomic status and the likelihood of informal care provision in Japan: An analysis considering survival probability of care recipients.

Studies show that the burden of caregiving tends to fall on individuals of low socioeconomic status (SES); however, the association between SES and the likelihood of caregiving has not yet been established. We studied the relationship between SES and the likelihood of adults providing long-term care for their parents in Japan, where compulsory public long-term insurance has been implemented. We used the following six comprehensive measures of SES for the analysis: income, financial assets, expenditure, living conditions, housing conditions, and education. We found that for some SES measures the probability of care provision for parents was greater in higher SES categories than in the lowest category, although the results were not systematically related to the order of SES categories or consistent across SES measures. The results did not change even after the difference in the probability of parents' survival according to SES was considered. Overall, we did not find evidence that individuals with lower SES were more likely to provide care to parents than higher-SES individuals. Although a negative association between SES and care burden has been repeatedly reported in terms of care intensity, the caregiving decision could be different in relation to SES. Further research is necessary to generalize the results.

Optimizing the Potential for Telehealth in Cardiovascular Care (in the Era of COVID-19): Time Will Tell.

Before the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, use of telehealth services had been limited in cardiovascular care. Potential benefits of telehealth include improved access to care, more efficient care management, reduced costs, the ability to assess patients within their homes while involving key caretakers in medical decisions, maintaining social distance, and increased patient satisfaction. Challenges include changes in payment models, issues with data security and privacy, potential depersonalization of the patient-clinician relationship, limitations in the use of digital health technologies, and the potential impact on disparities, including socioeconomic, gender, and age-related issues and access to technology and broadband. Implementation and expansion of telehealth from a policy and reimbursement practice standpoint are filled with difficult decisions, yet addressing these are critical to the future of health care.

Association of a Geriatric Emergency Department Innovation Program With Cost Outcomes Among Medicare Beneficiaries.

Importance: There has been a significant increase in the implementation and dissemination of geriatric emergency department (GED) programs. Understanding the costs associated with patient care would yield insight into the direct financial value for patients, hospitals, health systems, and payers. Objective: To evaluate the association of GED programs with Medicare costs per beneficiary. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study included data on Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries at 2 hospitals implementing Geriatric Emergency Department Innovations in Care Through Workforce, Informatics, and Structural Enhancement (GEDI WISE) (Mount Sinai Medical Center [MSMC] and Northwestern Memorial Hospital [NMH]) from January 1, 2013, to November 30, 2016. Analyses were conducted and refined from August 28, 2018, to November 20, 2020, using entropy balance to account for observed differences between the treatment and comparison groups. Interventions: Treatment included consultation with a transitional care nurse (TCN) or a social worker (SW) trained for the GEDI WISE program at a beneficiary's first ED visit (index ED visit). The comparison group included beneficiaries who were never seen by either a TCN or an SW during the study period. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome evaluated was prorated total Medicare payer expenditures per beneficiary over 30 and 60 days after the index ED visit encounter. Results: Of the total 24 839 unique Medicare beneficiaries, 4041 were seen across the 2 EDs; 1947 (17.4%) at MSMC and 2094 (15.4%) at the NMH received treatment from either a GED TCN and/or a GED SW. The mean (SD) age of beneficiaries at MSMC was 78.8 (8.5) years and at NMH was 76.4 (7.7) years. Most patients at both hospitals were female (6821 [60.8%] at MSMC and 8023 [58.9%] at NMH) and White (7729 [68.9%] at MSMC and 9984 [73.3%] at NMH). Treatment was associated with statistically significant mean savings per beneficiary of $2436 (95% CI, $1760-$3111; P < .001) at one ED and $2905 (95% CI, $2378-$3431; P < .001) at the other ED in the 30 days after the index ED visit. The association between treatment and mean cumulative savings at 60 days after the index ED visit per beneficiary was also significant: $1200 (95% CI, $231-$2169; P = .02) at one ED and $3202 (95% CI, $2452-$3951; P < .001) at the other ED. Conclusions and Relevance: Among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, receipt of ED-based geriatric treatment by a TCN and/or an SW was associated with lower Medicare expenditures. These estimated cost savings may be used when calculating or considering the bundled value and potential reimbursement per patient for GED care programs.

Societal costs of informal care of community-dwelling frail elderly people.

Aims: The aims of this study are to describe informal care activities and to estimate the societal cost of informal care of community-dwelling frail elderly people in Sweden. Methods: This study was performed within the frame of the TREEE project that included 408 frail elderly patients. At index hospitalisation (baseline), primary informal caregivers of the patients were provided with a questionnaire on informal care during a period of three months. Questions concerning other (secondary) informal caregivers were also included. A rough estimate of the total cost of informal care of frail elderly people in Sweden was obtained by combining data from this study with published data and official statistics. Results: In total, 176 informal caregivers responded, and 89% had provided informal care. The informal caregivers (primary and secondary) provided care for an average of 245 hours over three months. Taking care of the home was the dominating activity. In total, the mean cost of informal care was estimated to approximately 18,000 SEK (€1878) over three months, corresponding to an annual cost of approximately 72,000 SEK (€7477) per frail elderly person. The total annual societal costs of informal care of community dwelling frail elderly people aged 75 years and older in Sweden was estimated to be approximately 11,000 million SEK (€1150 million). Conclusions: The care of frail elderly people provided by informal caregivers is extensive and represents a great economic value. Although our calculations are associated with uncertainty, the size indicates that supporting informal caregivers should be a priority for society.

Telemedicine platforms and their use in the coronavirus disease-19 era to deliver comprehensive vascular care.

Implementation of telemedicine for patient encounters optimizes personal safety and allows for continuity of patient care. Embracing telehealth reduces the use of personal protective equipment and other resources consumed during in-person visits. The use of telehealth has increased to historic levels in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Telehealth may be a key modality to fight against COVID-19, allowing us to take care of patients, conserve personal protective equipment, and protect health care workers all while minimizing the risk of viral spread. We must not neglect vascular health issues while the coronavirus pandemic continues to flood many hospitals and keep people confined to their homes. Patients are not immune to diseases and illnesses such as stroke, critical limb ischemia, and deep vein thrombosis while being confined to their homes and afraid to visit hospitals. Emerging from the COVID-19 crisis, incorporating telemedicine into routine medical care is transformative. By leveraging digital technology, the authors discuss their experience with the implementation, workflow, coding, and reimbursement issues of telehealth during the COVID-19 era.

High value care education in general surgery residency programs: A multi-institutional needs assessment.

BACKGROUND: The ACGME mandates that residency programs provide training related to high value care (HVC). The purpose of this study was to explore HVC education in general surgery residency programs. METHODS: An electronic survey was distributed to general surgery residents in geographically diverse programs. RESULTS: The response rate was 29% (181/619). Residents reported various HVC components in their curricula. Less than half felt HVC is very important for their future practice (44%) and only 15% felt confident they could lead a QI initiative in practice. Only 20% of residents reported participating in a root cause analysis and less than one-third of residents (30%) were frequently exposed to cost considerations. CONCLUSION: Few residents feel prepared to lead quality improvement initiatives, have participated in patient safety processes, or are aware of patients' costs of care. This underscores the need for improved scope and quality of HVC education and establishment of formal curricula.

Patient Experiences of Integrated Care in Medicare Accountable Care Organizations and Medicare Advantage Versus Traditional Fee-for-Service.

BACKGROUND: Health insurance design can influence the extent to which clinical care is well-coordinated. Through alternative payment models, Medicare Advantage (MA) and Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) have the potential to improve integration relative to traditional fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare. OBJECTIVE: To characterize patient experiences of integrated care within Medicare and identify whether MA or ACO beneficiaries perceive greater integration than FFS beneficiaries. DESIGN: Retrospective cross-sectional analysis of the 2015 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. SUBJECTS: Nationally representative sample of 11,978 Medicare beneficiaries. MEASURES: Main outcomes included 8 previously derived domains of patient-perceived integrated care (PPIC), measured on a scale of 1-4. RESULTS: The final sample was 55% female with a mean (SD) age of 71.1 (11.3). In unadjusted analyses, we observed considerable variation across PPIC domains in the full sample, but little variation across subsamples defined by coverage type within a given PPIC domain. In linear models adjusting for a rich set of patient characteristics, we observe no significant benefits of ACOs nor MA relative to FFS, a finding which is robust to alternative specifications and adjustment for multiple comparisons. We similarly observed no benefits in subgroup analyses restricted to states with relatively high market penetration of ACOs or MA. CONCLUSIONS: Despite characteristics of ACOs and MA that theoretically promote integrated care, we find that PPIC is largely similar across coverage types in Medicare.

Social Enterprise Model (SEM) for private sector tuberculosis screening and care in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: In Bangladesh, about 80% of healthcare is provided by the private sector. Although free diagnosis and care is offered in the public sector, only half of the estimated number of people with tuberculosis are diagnosed, treated, and notified to the national program. Private sector engagement strategies often have been small scale and time limited. We evaluated a Social Enterprise Model combining external funding and income generation at three tuberculosis screening centres across the Dhaka Metropolitan Area for diagnosing and treating tuberculosis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The model established three tuberculosis screening centres across Dhaka Metropolitan Area that carried the icddr,b brand and offered free Xpert MTB/RIF tests to patients visiting the screening centres for subsidized, digital chest radiographs from April 2014 to December 2017. A network of private and public health care providers, and community recommendation was formed for patient referral. No financial incentives were offered to physicians for referrals. Revenues from radiography were used to support screening centres' operation. Tuberculosis patients could choose to receive treatment from the private or public sector. Between 2014 and 2017, 1,032 private facilities networked with 8,466 private providers were mapped within the Dhaka Metropolitan Area. 64, 031 patients with TB symptoms were referred by the private providers, public sector and community residents to the three screening centres with 80% coming from private providers. 4,270 private providers made at least one referral. Overall, 10,288 pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis cases were detected and 7,695 were bacteriologically positive by Xpert, corresponding to 28% of the total notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. CONCLUSION: The model established a network of private providers who referred individuals with presumptive tuberculosis without financial incentives to icddr,b's screening centres, facilitating a quarter of total tuberculosis notifications in Dhaka Metropolitan Area. Scaling up this approach may enhance national and international tuberculosis response.

Use of Data-Driven Methods to Predict Long-term Patterns of Health Care Spending for Medicare Patients.

Importance: Current approaches to predicting health care costs generally rely on a single composite value of spending and focus on short time horizons. By contrast, examining patients' spending patterns using dynamic measures applied over longer periods may better identify patients with different spending and help target interventions to those with the greatest need. Objective: To classify patients by their long-term, dynamic health care spending patterns using a data-driven approach and assess the ability to predict spending patterns, particularly using characteristics that are potentially modifiable through intervention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used a retrospective cohort design from a random nationwide sample of Medicare fee-for-service administrative claims data to identify beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with continuous eligibility from 2011 to 2013. Statistical analysis was performed from August 2018 to December 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures: Group-based trajectory modeling was applied to the claims data to classify the Medicare beneficiaries by their total health care spending patterns over a 2-year period. The ability to predict membership in each trajectory spending group was assessed using generalized boosted regression, a data mining approach to model building and prediction, with split-sample validation. Models were estimated using (1) prior-year predictors and (2) prior-year predictors potentially modifiable through intervention measured in the claims data. These models were evaluated using validated C-statistics. The relative influence of individual predictors in the models was evaluated. Results: Among the 329 476 beneficiaries, the mean (SD) age was 76.0 (7.2) years and 190 346 (57.8%) were female. This final 5-group model included a minimal-user group (group 1, 37 572 individuals [11.4%]), a low-cost group (group 2, 48 575 individuals [14.7%]), a rising-cost group (group 3, 24 736 individuals [7.5%]), a moderate-cost group (group 4, 83 338 individuals [25.3%]), and a high-cost group (group 5, 135 255 individuals [41.2%]). Potentially modifiable characteristics strongly predicted these patterns (C-statistics range: 0.68-0.94). For groups with progressively increasing spending in particular, the most influential factors were number of medications (relative influence: 29.2), number of office visits (relative influence: 30.3), and mean medication adherence (relative influence: 33.6). Conclusions and Relevance: Using a data-driven approach, distinct spending patterns were identified with high accuracy. The potentially modifiable predictors of membership in the rising-cost group represent important levers for early interventions that may prevent later spending increases. This approach could be adapted by organizations to target quality improvement interventions, particularly because numerous health care organizations are increasingly using these routinely collected data.